Buy vs rent — how many years until ownership wins?

Methodology & assumptions

For each community, simulates 30 years of buyer cash-flow vs renter cash-flow using the community's actual median price, median annual rent, and 6-month price forecast (annualised). Buyer outflow = down payment + closing costs + mortgage interest + service charges. Renter outflow = annual rent compounded at 3%/yr RERA-typical. Equity grows from price appreciation + mortgage principal paid. Renter's opportunity cost on their down payment + closing costs is included at 4%/yr. The "inflection year" is where the buyer's net worth (equity - cash out) overtakes the renter's net worth (opportunity cost - rent paid).

A model. Real-world outcomes vary with: actual mortgage rate negotiated, transaction fees, vacant periods, mid-term price corrections, refinancing, etc. Useful for ranking communities relative to each other, NOT for deciding to buy a specific unit. Last refresh: 04/11/2026.