Returns predictor · v0 beta

Projected returns by community — baseline trend plus infrastructure shocks

Every Dubai community, projected over 12 / 36 / 60 months. Returns decompose into a clamped baseline drift and per-event infrastructure shocks (Blue Line, DWC Phase 2, Etihad Rail and others) with explicit confidence bands. The closest to a transparent forward-returns model that exists for Dubai property.

Beta · calibration in progress · 1 event in the metro sample. The model decomposes each projection into a mean-reverting baseline drift, per-event infrastructure shocks, and off-plan supply pressure. Shock coefficients are mostly literature defaults from transit-oriented development and airport-spillover research — Dubai-specific calibration is only available for the Route 2020 metro extension (the one historical event whose pre/post window doesn't span a broader-market regime shift like the 2008 crash or 2014 cool-down). The Route 2020 event-level DiD has standard error ±5.5pp, so the metro coefficient itself is single-event precision until Blue Line 2029 doubles the sample. The confidence band on each projection includes a large calibration-uncertainty term to reflect that. Full methodology

90 communities · 12 with infrastructure shocks

#	Community	Projected 36m	Band	Z-score	Shocks
1	International City Phase 1	+33.3%	±11.5pp	+0.92	1
2	Al Rashidiya	+33.3%	±11.5pp	+0.92	1
3	Silicon Oasis	+32.1%	±11.5pp	+0.81	1
4	DownTown Dubai	+31.7%	±15.5pp	+0.76	2
5	Dubai Health Care City Phase 2	+31.4%	±15.5pp	+0.74	2
6	The Valley	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
7	Arabian Ranches 3	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
8	Mudon	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
9	Jumeirah Golf Estates	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
10	Arabian Ranches - 1	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
11	Palm Jabal Ali	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
12	Jumeirah Park	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
13	Arabian Ranches II	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
14	Nad Al Shiba Villas	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
15	Jabal Ali Village	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
16	The Villa	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
17	Bluewaters Island	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
18	Springs - 1	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
19	Springs - 2	+31.3%	±7.5pp	+0.72	0
20	City Walk	+31.1%	±11.5pp	+0.71	1
21	International City Phase 3	+30.8%	±7.5pp	+0.68	0
22	Rukan	+30.8%	±7.5pp	+0.68	0
23	Remraam	+30.8%	±7.5pp	+0.68	0
24	City Of Arabia	+30.8%	±7.5pp	+0.68	0
25	TOWN SQUARE	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
26	Jumeirah Islands	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
27	Mina Rashid	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
28	The Greens	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
29	Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
30	LA MER	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
31	Barsha Heights	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
32	Meydan Racecourse Community	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
33	Jumeirah Garden City	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
34	DMCC-EZ2	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
35	JABEL ALI HILLS	+30.7%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
36	Palm Jumeirah	+30.6%	±7.5pp	+0.67	0
37	DAMAC Lagoons	+30.0%	±7.5pp	+0.61	0
38	800 Villas	+30.0%	±7.5pp	+0.60	0
39	Al Furjan	+29.5%	±7.5pp	+0.55	0
40	DAMAC HILLS	+29.2%	±7.5pp	+0.53	0
41	TILAL AL GHAF	+29.1%	±7.5pp	+0.52	0
42	Al Barari	+28.8%	±7.5pp	+0.50	0
43	Dubai South Residential District	+28.7%	±7.5pp	+0.48	0
44	Liwan1	+28.6%	±7.5pp	+0.48	0
45	Business Bay	+28.6%	±11.5pp	+0.47	1
46	Living Legends	+28.2%	±7.5pp	+0.44	0
47	Jaddaf Waterfront	+27.9%	±11.5pp	+0.40	1
48	Jumeirah Village Circle	+27.8%	±7.5pp	+0.39	0
49	Dubai Land Residence Complex	+27.8%	±7.5pp	+0.39	0
50	Majan	+27.8%	±7.5pp	+0.39	0
51	Dubai Investment Park Second	+27.8%	±7.5pp	+0.39	0
52	Motor City	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
53	Dubai Science Park	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
54	Dubai Maritime City	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
55	Palm Deira	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
56	HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
57	Falcon City	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
58	The World	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+0.38	0
59	International Media Production Zone	+24.1%	±7.5pp	+0.04	0
60	Down Town Jabal Ali	+23.3%	±7.5pp	-0.03	0
61	Wasl Gate	+23.2%	±7.5pp	-0.04	0
62	Jumeirah Village Triangle	+23.1%	±7.5pp	-0.05	0
63	Arjan	+22.8%	±7.5pp	-0.08	0
64	Wasl 1	+22.4%	±7.5pp	-0.12	0
65	Madinat Badr	+20.8%	±7.5pp	-0.27	0
66	Dubai Investment Park First	+19.1%	±7.5pp	-0.43	0
67	Dubai Sports City	+18.9%	±7.5pp	-0.44	0
68	Dubai Studio City	+18.1%	±7.5pp	-0.52	0
69	Mirdif	+17.9%	±11.5pp	-0.55	1
70	Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community	+17.0%	±7.5pp	-0.63	0
71	Meydan One Community	+17.0%	±7.5pp	-0.63	0
72	Dubai Creek Harbour	+16.6%	±11.5pp	-0.67	1
73	Dubai Water Canal	+15.6%	±15.5pp	-0.76	2
74	WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT	+15.1%	±7.5pp	-0.81	0
75	Dubai Hills Estate	+14.8%	±7.5pp	-0.84	0
76	Al Warqa	+14.3%	±11.5pp	-0.88	1
77	Dubai Marina	+14.0%	±7.5pp	-0.91	0
78	Dubai World Central	+12.7%	±7.5pp	-1.04	0
79	SOBHA HARTLAND	+11.8%	±7.5pp	-1.12	0
80	DMCC-EZ1	+7.5%	±7.5pp	-1.52	0
81	Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR	+7.1%	±7.5pp	-1.57	0
82	TECOM Site D	+5.5%	±7.5pp	-1.72	0
83	Business Park	+3.9%	±7.5pp	-1.87	0
84	Jumeirah Lakes Towers	+1.2%	±7.5pp	-2.13	0
85	Nad Al Sheba Gardens	+0.8%	±7.5pp	-2.16	0
86	Dubai Harbour	-0.1%	±7.5pp	-2.25	0
87	Sufouh Gardens	-6.1%	±7.5pp	-2.82	0
88	Discovery Gardens	-7.0%	±7.5pp	-2.91	0
89	DAMAC HILLS 2	-7.1%	±7.5pp	-2.91	0
90	TECOM Site A	-7.1%	±7.5pp	-2.91	0

Methodology

Projection formula. For each community, the projected total PSF return over the horizon is the sum of three terms — a mean-reverting baseline drift, per-event infrastructure shocks, and an off-plan supply-pressure drag.

Baseline + mean reversion. Drift is annualised from the community's last 8 quarters of DLD price history, clamped to [-6%, +12%]/yr. The clamped value is then blended toward a 7%/yr Dubai long-run anchor — λ = 0.1 at 12m, 0.3 at 36m, 0.5 at 60m. This stops a community currently in a hot streak from projecting a flat compounded return out to 5 years; markets revert.

Infrastructure shocks. Each event (metro, rail, airport, mega-development) has a peak uplift coefficient, a ramp-up window before opening day, a saturation window after opening, and a catchment radius. The contribution to a given community is the peak uplift × distance decay × time factor × confidence weight. Distance decay is linear from 1.0 at the event centre to 0.0 at the catchment boundary. The time factor is the average value of the shock curve over the horizon window, integrated numerically.

Supply pressure. Each community has an off-plan share (offplan_pct from stats — the % of recent transactions that are off-plan filings). City baseline is 30%. Communities with a share above baseline get a small negative drag scaled by the excess pp and the horizon length, capped at -3pp. The signal: communities with a heavy unbuilt pipeline see absorption pressure when those units complete and hit the secondary market.

Confidence band. Each projection ships with a symmetric ± band that combines a calibration-uncertainty term (large while coefficients are literature defaults) and a per-year horizon-uncertainty term. Longer horizons widen the band; communities with more shocks applied widen it further.

Z-score normalisation. The Z-score column expresses each community's projection as standard deviations above or below the cohort mean for the same horizon, so picks can be ranked relative to peers.

What v0 doesn't model yet. Service-charge trajectory, foreign-buyer demand proxies, and per-building granularity (currently community-level only). Supply pressure uses the offplan_pct proxy rather than per-project unit counts because the project-level data is too sparse on completion dates. v1 calibration plan: run scripts/calibrate/predictor-coefficients.ts against the pre-2020 DLD back-fill to replace literature defaults with Dubai-specific values.

Source files for audit. Math: src/lib/predictor.ts. Coefficients: src/lib/predictor-coefficients.ts. Infrastructure events: src/data/infrastructure-pipeline.json. Every coefficient is auditable; no values are hidden behind a logo.