Returns predictor · v0 beta

Projected returns by community — baseline trend plus infrastructure shocks

Every Dubai community, projected over 12 / 36 / 60 months. Returns decompose into a clamped baseline drift and per-event infrastructure shocks (Blue Line, DWC Phase 2, Etihad Rail and others) with explicit confidence bands. The closest to a transparent forward-returns model that exists for Dubai property.

Beta · calibration in progress · 1 event in the metro sample. The model decomposes each projection into a mean-reverting baseline drift, per-event infrastructure shocks, and off-plan supply pressure. Shock coefficients are mostly literature defaults from transit-oriented development and airport-spillover research — Dubai-specific calibration is only available for the Route 2020 metro extension (the one historical event whose pre/post window doesn't span a broader-market regime shift like the 2008 crash or 2014 cool-down). The Route 2020 event-level DiD has standard error ±5.5pp, so the metro coefficient itself is single-event precision until Blue Line 2029 doubles the sample. The confidence band on each projection includes a large calibration-uncertainty term to reflect that. Full methodology

90 communities · 9 with infrastructure shocks

#	Community	Projected 36m	Band	Z-score	Shocks
1	Al Warqa	+33.0%	±11.5pp	+1.56	1
2	International City Phase 1	+31.3%	±11.5pp	+1.43	1
3	Jumeirah Park	+30.5%	±7.5pp	+1.37	0
4	Nad Al Shiba Villas	+30.5%	±7.5pp	+1.37	0
5	Springs - 1	+30.5%	±7.5pp	+1.37	0
6	Springs - 2	+30.5%	±7.5pp	+1.37	0
7	Mudon	+30.4%	±7.5pp	+1.36	0
8	JABEL ALI HILLS	+30.3%	±7.5pp	+1.36	0
9	International City Phase 3	+29.7%	±11.5pp	+1.31	1
10	Jumeirah Golf Estates	+28.5%	±7.5pp	+1.22	0
11	Down Town Jabal Ali	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+1.16	0
12	WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT	+27.7%	±7.5pp	+1.16	0
13	Arjan	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
14	Dubai South Residential District	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
15	Jumeirah Islands	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
16	Wasl Gate	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
17	Meydan Racecourse Community	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
18	Living Legends	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
19	Business Park	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
20	Sufouh Gardens	+27.4%	±7.5pp	+1.13	0
21	Rukan	+26.3%	±7.5pp	+1.05	0
22	DAMAC HILLS	+25.2%	±7.5pp	+0.97	0
23	The World	+25.0%	±7.5pp	+0.96	0
24	Falcon City	+24.9%	±7.5pp	+0.95	0
25	Madinat Badr	+24.4%	±7.5pp	+0.92	0
26	Dubai Science Park	+22.5%	±7.5pp	+0.77	0
27	Dubai Investment Park First	+22.4%	±7.5pp	+0.76	0
28	Palm Deira	+22.4%	±7.5pp	+0.76	0
29	Al Rashidiya	+21.1%	±11.5pp	+0.67	1
30	Palm Jumeirah	+21.0%	±7.5pp	+0.66	0
31	Jaddaf Waterfront	+20.8%	±11.5pp	+0.64	1
32	Al Barari	+20.5%	±7.5pp	+0.62	0
33	Remraam	+19.9%	±7.5pp	+0.58	0
34	Dubai Maritime City	+19.5%	±7.5pp	+0.55	0
35	The Villa	+19.1%	±7.5pp	+0.52	0
36	Jumeirah Village Triangle	+19.1%	±7.5pp	+0.51	0
37	Jabal Ali Village	+18.8%	±7.5pp	+0.49	0
38	The Greens	+18.1%	±7.5pp	+0.44	0
39	City Of Arabia	+17.9%	±7.5pp	+0.43	0
40	Jumeirah Garden City	+16.8%	±7.5pp	+0.35	0
41	Barsha Heights	+16.7%	±7.5pp	+0.34	0
42	LA MER	+16.6%	±7.5pp	+0.33	0
43	DAMAC Lagoons	+16.6%	±7.5pp	+0.33	0
44	Arabian Ranches II	+14.2%	±7.5pp	+0.15	0
45	Dubai Sports City	+13.4%	±7.5pp	+0.09	0
46	Dubai Studio City	+13.0%	±7.5pp	+0.06	0
47	DMCC-EZ2	+11.2%	±7.5pp	-0.07	0
48	Dubai Creek Harbour	+11.2%	±11.5pp	-0.08	1
49	800 Villas	+11.1%	±7.5pp	-0.08	0
50	TECOM Site A	+10.5%	±7.5pp	-0.12	0
51	Dubai World Central	+10.1%	±7.5pp	-0.16	0
52	DMCC-EZ1	+7.2%	±7.5pp	-0.37	0
53	Arabian Ranches - 1	+6.7%	±7.5pp	-0.41	0
54	Meydan One Community	+6.6%	±7.5pp	-0.42	0
55	Dubai Water Canal	+6.0%	±7.5pp	-0.46	0
56	TOWN SQUARE	+5.9%	±7.5pp	-0.47	0
57	Mirdif	+5.4%	±11.5pp	-0.51	1
58	Arabian Ranches 3	+4.9%	±7.5pp	-0.54	0
59	International Media Production Zone	+4.8%	±7.5pp	-0.55	0
60	TILAL AL GHAF	+3.9%	±7.5pp	-0.62	0
61	Wasl 1	+3.9%	±7.5pp	-0.62	0
62	Al Furjan	+3.9%	±7.5pp	-0.62	0
63	Nad Al Sheba Gardens	+3.3%	±7.5pp	-0.66	0
64	Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11	+2.7%	±7.5pp	-0.71	0
65	Majan	+2.6%	±7.5pp	-0.71	0
66	City Walk	+2.3%	±7.5pp	-0.73	0
67	Palm Jabal Ali	+2.3%	±7.5pp	-0.74	0
68	Mina Rashid	+2.1%	±7.5pp	-0.75	0
69	Dubai Health Care City Phase 2	+1.6%	±11.5pp	-0.79	1
70	Jumeirah Village Circle	+0.4%	±7.5pp	-0.88	0
71	SOBHA HARTLAND	+0.3%	±7.5pp	-0.89	0
72	Discovery Gardens	-0.6%	±7.5pp	-0.96	0
73	HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7	-1.1%	±7.5pp	-0.99	0
74	TECOM Site D	-1.6%	±7.5pp	-1.03	0
75	Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR	-3.7%	±7.5pp	-1.19	0
76	Liwan1	-4.9%	±7.5pp	-1.27	0
77	Dubai Hills Estate	-5.9%	±7.5pp	-1.35	0
78	Dubai Investment Park Second	-6.2%	±7.5pp	-1.37	0
79	Silicon Oasis	-6.5%	±11.5pp	-1.39	1
80	Bluewaters Island	-7.3%	±7.5pp	-1.46	0
81	Dubai Marina	-7.4%	±7.5pp	-1.46	0
82	DAMAC HILLS 2	-7.4%	±7.5pp	-1.46	0
83	Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community	-7.4%	±7.5pp	-1.46	0
84	DownTown Dubai	-9.3%	±7.5pp	-1.60	0
85	Jumeirah Lakes Towers	-9.7%	±7.5pp	-1.63	0
86	Dubai Harbour	-10.3%	±7.5pp	-1.68	0
87	The Valley	-10.3%	±7.5pp	-1.68	0
88	Business Bay	-10.4%	±7.5pp	-1.69	0
89	Dubai Land Residence Complex	-10.4%	±7.5pp	-1.69	0
90	Motor City	-10.4%	±7.5pp	-1.69	0

Methodology

Projection formula. For each community, the projected total PSF return over the horizon is the sum of three terms — a mean-reverting baseline drift, per-event infrastructure shocks, and an off-plan supply-pressure drag.

Baseline + mean reversion. Drift is annualised from the community's last 8 quarters of DLD price history, clamped to [-6%, +12%]/yr. The clamped value is then blended toward a 7%/yr Dubai long-run anchor — λ = 0.1 at 12m, 0.3 at 36m, 0.5 at 60m. This stops a community currently in a hot streak from projecting a flat compounded return out to 5 years; markets revert.

Infrastructure shocks. Each event (metro, rail, airport, mega-development) has a peak uplift coefficient, a ramp-up window before opening day, a saturation window after opening, and a catchment radius. The contribution to a given community is the peak uplift × distance decay × time factor × confidence weight. Distance decay is linear from 1.0 at the event centre to 0.0 at the catchment boundary. The time factor is the average value of the shock curve over the horizon window, integrated numerically.

Supply pressure. Each community has an off-plan share (offplan_pct from stats — the % of recent transactions that are off-plan filings). City baseline is 30%. Communities with a share above baseline get a small negative drag scaled by the excess pp and the horizon length, capped at -3pp. The signal: communities with a heavy unbuilt pipeline see absorption pressure when those units complete and hit the secondary market.

Confidence band. Each projection ships with a symmetric ± band that combines a calibration-uncertainty term (large while coefficients are literature defaults) and a per-year horizon-uncertainty term. Longer horizons widen the band; communities with more shocks applied widen it further.

Z-score normalisation. The Z-score column expresses each community's projection as standard deviations above or below the cohort mean for the same horizon, so picks can be ranked relative to peers.

What v0 doesn't model yet. Service-charge trajectory, foreign-buyer demand proxies, and per-building granularity (currently community-level only). Supply pressure uses the offplan_pct proxy rather than per-project unit counts because the project-level data is too sparse on completion dates. v1 calibration plan: run scripts/calibrate/predictor-coefficients.ts against the pre-2020 DLD back-fill to replace literature defaults with Dubai-specific values.

Source files for audit. Math: src/lib/predictor.ts. Coefficients: src/lib/predictor-coefficients.ts. Infrastructure events: src/data/infrastructure-pipeline.json. Every coefficient is auditable; no values are hidden behind a logo.