6-month price forecast — with the drivers we used

Property Finder and Realiste ship a single forecast number. We show ours and the three drivers that produced it: base trend, supply pressure, and sentiment momentum. Transparent enough to argue with.

Dubai-wide forecast

+4.7%

Communities covered

87

Last refresh

5/7/2026

Direction:
Min confidence:
Community 6mo forecast Conf
Jumeirah Islands+15.0%low
Silicon Oasis+14.2%low
Living Legends+13.9%low
Motor City+13.4%low
DMCC-EZ2+13.3%low
Falcon City+13.1%low
JABEL ALI HILLS+12.3%low
Meydan Racecourse Community+12.2%low
LA MER+10.3%low
Jumeirah Golf Estates+9.7%low
Barsha Heights+9.6%low
Down Town Jabal Ali+9.6%low
International City Phase 3+9.0%low
Dubai Land Residence Complex+8.9%low
Palm Deira+8.6%low
Arabian Ranches - 1+8.5%medium
Mina Rashid+8.4%low
Nad Al Shiba Villas+8.4%medium
Springs - 2+8.4%low
Springs - 1+8.3%medium
HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7+8.2%low
The Valley+7.9%medium
The World+7.9%low
City Of Arabia+7.8%low
Rukan+7.7%low
Jabal Ali Village+7.7%low
The Villa+7.6%medium
Arabian Ranches II+7.5%medium
Dubai Science Park+7.4%low
Palm Jabal Ali+7.3%low
TOWN SQUARE+7.2%medium
Dubai Investment Park Second+7.0%low
Dubai South Residential District+6.8%medium
800 Villas+6.7%medium
Palm Jumeirah+6.3%medium
Arabian Ranches 3+6.3%medium
Al Barari+6.0%low
International City Phase 1+5.9%medium
Dubai Maritime City+5.6%medium
TILAL AL GHAF+5.5%medium
The Greens+5.5%medium
Dubai Marina+5.4%medium
International Media Production Zone+5.4%medium
Jumeirah Park+5.4%medium
Meydan One Community+5.2%medium
Jumeirah Garden City+5.2%medium
Mudon+5.1%medium
Wasl Gate+5.1%medium
Jaddaf Waterfront+5.1%medium
Liwan1+5.0%low
Remraam+4.7%medium
Al Furjan+4.6%medium
Wasl 1+4.5%high
Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11+4.5%medium
Business Bay+4.4%medium
Jumeirah Village Circle+4.3%medium
Dubai Health Care City Phase 2+4.3%low
Madinat Badr+4.2%medium
Jumeirah Village Triangle+3.8%medium
Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community+3.5%high
DownTown Dubai+3.2%medium
SOBHA HARTLAND+2.8%high
Majan+2.8%medium
Dubai Hills Estate+2.7%high
Dubai Studio City+2.6%high
City Walk+2.5%medium
Bluewaters Island+2.5%medium
Dubai Sports City+2.1%medium
WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT+2.1%high
Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR+1.9%high
Jumeirah Lakes Towers+1.8%medium
DAMAC Lagoons+1.4%medium
Dubai World Central+0.9%medium
DAMAC HILLS+0.5%medium
Arjan+0.4%high
Dubai Creek Harbour+0.0%high
Dubai Harbour-0.1%high
DAMAC HILLS 2-0.8%medium
Dubai Water Canal-0.9%low
Nad Al Sheba Gardens-1.3%medium
TECOM Site D-1.4%medium
Dubai Investment Park First-2.0%medium
DMCC-EZ1-3.6%medium
Sufouh Gardens-3.8%medium
Business Park-4.2%high
Discovery Gardens-5.9%medium
Site A-15.0%low

Methodology

Three-driver transparent model: (1) base trend = OLS slope of last 4–8 quarters of median psf projected 6mo forward; (2) supply pressure = downward modifier scaled by off-plan share, capped at -2pp; (3) demand pull = sentiment_trend × 8, capped at ±2pp, only when n≥30 Reddit items. Most-recent quarter dropped from trend if its sample is <30% of prior (DLD registration lag). Confidence reflects quarterly volatility + sample width. Approximate. NOT a substitute for property-level appraisal.

  • Base trend — OLS slope of last 4–8 quarters of median psf, projected forward 2 quarters. Capped at ±15% to avoid runaway extrapolation.
  • Supply pressure — downward pressure scaled by off-plan share. 0% off-plan → 0pp; 50% → -1pp; 100% → -2pp.
  • Demand pull — sentiment trend × 8, capped ±2pp. Only applied when ≥30 Reddit items on-topic.
  • Confidence — derived from quarterly volatility + sample width. High → ±5%, medium → ±8%, low → ±13%.
  • Most-recent quarter is dropped from the trend if its sample size is <30% of the prior quarter (DLD registration lag).