Regional impact

Iran conflict impact tracker

74 dayssince conflict began · March 2026
DLD data refreshed2mo ago

Tracking how the Iran conflict is affecting Dubai property prices and transaction volumes. Comparing like-for-like data: 2025Q4 (Oct–Dec 2025, pre-conflict) vs 2026Q1 (Jan–Mar 2026, first full conflict quarter).

Q2 2026 data refreshes weekly via the DLD parquet pipeline (Saturdays). The page will update automatically as Apr–Jun transactions register. Source: Dubai Land Department official records.

Avg Price/sqft Change

+3.0%

2025Q4 → 2026Q1

Avg Volume Change

-84.7%

Transaction count

Communities Declining

43

of 85 tracked

Communities Rising

41

of 85 tracked

Most affected

Biggest PSF declines, Q4 2025 → Q1 2026

Most resilient

Biggest gains despite conflict overhang

By segment — apartment vs villa

Median changes within each property type. Different ownership profiles often respond differently to geopolitical events — apartment investors are more leveraged, villa owner-occupiers are stickier.

Apartment communities

55 tracked

Median PSF change

-2.3%

Median volume change

-87%

Villa communities

12 tracked

Median PSF change

+2.7%

Median volume change

-82%

Off-plan vs ready divergence

Volume of off-plan launches vs ready-property resale, by quarter. Off-plan typically reacts to sentiment shocks first; ready transactions are stickier.

8 quarters

Off-plan

2026Q1 vs 2025Q4

-58%

16,447 txns this quarter

Ready

2026Q1 vs 2025Q4

-52%

14,497 txns this quarter

2024Q2
51,833 txns
2024Q3
60,940 txns
2024Q4
61,350 txns
2025Q1
55,157 txns
2025Q2
64,736 txns
2025Q3
70,572 txns
2025Q4
69,785 txns
2026Q1
30,944 txns
Off-plan Ready

Cash vs mortgage trajectory

Share of sales matched against a coincident DLD mortgage registration. Cash share rising during shocks signals risk-tolerant buyers stepping in as mortgage-dependent buyers step back.

Cash share change (2025Q4 → 2026Q1)

-6.1pp

Cash now 48% of sales · financed 52%

2024Q2
45% cash
2024Q3
47% cash
2024Q4
47% cash
2025Q1
42% cash
2025Q2
46% cash
2025Q3
56% cash
2025Q4
55% cash
2026Q1
48% cash
Cash Mortgage-financed

Methodology: a sale is “financed” if a Mortgage transaction registered with DLD in the same building within ±2 calendar months. Approximation — foreign or private-bank financing doesn't register with DLD and counts as cash.

Daily transactions — last 90 days

All Dubai residential transactions registered with DLD per day. Trailing 30 days fade because of registration lag — final numbers will rise as Q2 paperwork lands.

1,035

avg txns/day

01039207810-1012-1202-12

Conflict began March 2026. Solid line = transactions with full registration; dashed = trailing 30 days where DLD records may still be backfilling. Source: DLD parquet, refreshed weekly.

Reddit pulse — is safety on residents' minds?

Browse all pulse data →

Communities where the “safety” aspect comes up most often in r/dubai, r/UAE, r/expats threads. High mentions don't always mean concern — but the sentiment score tells you the direction.

From 4,051 AI-scored Reddit posts. Mention counts are aspect-tagged — not all mentions are conflict-related; UAE-wide safety is consistently rated highly in resident discussion.

Community-by-community impact

Full ranked table. Click any community for its full price history + Reddit pulse.

Sort:
Type:
Community2025Q4 PSF2026Q1 PSFPrice Change2025Q4 Vol2026Q1 VolVol Change
Barsha Heightsapartment1,6681,300-22.1%11014-87%
Liwan1apartment1,3881,092-21.3%46790-81%
Silicon Oasisapartment1,3381,061-20.7%1,008120-88%
Sufouh Gardensapartment2,1071,700-19.3%507-86%
DownTown Dubaiapartment3,6683,017-17.7%1,260155-88%
Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBRapartment1,7371,444-16.9%16912-93%
Dubai Marinaapartment2,0631,727-16.3%726104-86%
Rukanvilla1,4301,204-15.8%11712-90%
The Worldapartment5,0734,356-14.1%53-40%
TILAL AL GHAFvilla2,4012,082-13.3%13918-87%
DAMAC HILLSmixed1,7301,509-12.8%76270-91%
SOBHA HARTLANDapartment2,1131,864-11.8%39183-79%
Wasl 1apartment2,2312,049-8.2%1239-93%
Bluewaters Islandapartment5,9735,525-7.5%358-77%
Meydan Racecourse Communityapartment2,1992,036-7.4%15628-82%
Dubai Harbourapartment4,1343,846-7.0%30425-92%
Jumeirah Village Triangleapartment1,6671,554-6.8%2,335246-89%
Palm Deiraapartment2,5622,394-6.6%1,491266-82%
Discovery Gardensapartment1,009946-6.2%28846-84%
Dubai Sports Cityapartment1,4501,361-6.1%1,315141-89%
Mina Rashidapartment2,8982,733-5.7%28222-92%
City Walkapartment3,1412,976-5.3%19525-87%
Palm Jumeirahapartment3,5593,383-4.9%47060-87%
Motor Cityapartment1,8691,784-4.5%1,72996-94%
Jumeirah Lakes Towersapartment1,6751,602-4.4%737101-86%
Jumeirah Village Circleapartment1,5501,483-4.3%4,702524-89%
Jaddaf Waterfrontapartment1,8951,822-3.9%45518-96%
Madinat Badrapartment1,3721,325-3.4%154-73%
Dubai Maritime Cityapartment3,1963,093-3.2%1,667216-87%
Mudonvilla1,6371,596-2.5%20340-80%
Down Town Jabal Aliapartment1,3961,363-2.4%13824-83%
WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENTapartment1,1971,170-2.3%217-67%
Dubai Health Care City Phase 2apartment2,0852,041-2.1%56651-91%
JABEL ALI HILLSmixed377370-1.9%9818-82%
International City Phase 3apartment1,0591,040-1.8%41854-87%
Dubai Science Parkapartment1,7561,738-1.0%1,850127-93%
International Media Production Zoneapartment1,3321,319-1.0%974180-82%
DMCC-EZ2apartment2,9452,917-1.0%92448-95%
Dubai Land Residence Complexapartment1,3921,379-0.9%2,248319-86%
Arjanapartment1,5381,526-0.8%1,362186-86%
Falcon Citymixed1,5941,584-0.6%14719-87%
Wasl Gateapartment1,4581,451-0.5%40958-86%
TOWN SQUAREapartment1,5231,521-0.1%71585-88%
Arabian Ranches - 1villa1,3551,3550.0%9617-82%
Palm Jabal Alimixed3,4623,470+0.2%193105-46%
Jumeirah Garden Cityapartment2,3572,363+0.3%34477-78%
The Villavilla1,0121,016+0.4%286-79%
Dubai Hills Estateapartment2,4342,444+0.4%833154-82%
The Valleyvilla1,4581,468+0.7%38947-88%
Living Legendsmixed1,0881,099+1.0%13920-86%
Dubai World Centralmixed1,6341,652+1.1%1,946332-83%
Remraamapartment931948+1.8%11520-83%
Al Furjanmixed1,3871,415+2.0%80796-88%
Jumeirah Islandsapartment2,4382,502+2.6%47052-89%
DAMAC Lagoonsmixed1,6941,746+3.1%19519-90%
Meydan One Communityapartment2,0612,131+3.4%36338-90%
LA MERapartment6,7286,984+3.8%13820-86%
The Greensapartment1,8321,905+4.0%16725-85%
City Of Arabiaapartment1,6151,680+4.0%28922-92%
DAMAC HILLS 2mixed1,0051,050+4.5%55171-87%
Dubai Creek Harbourapartment2,5342,649+4.5%1,088355-67%
800 Villasvilla1,2511,311+4.8%164-75%
Springs - 1villa1,6331,712+4.8%312-94%
Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Communityapartment2,2802,395+5.0%617-89%
Dubai Investment Park Firstmixed938987+5.2%13817-88%
HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7mixed1,8131,910+5.4%445-89%
International City Phase 1apartment681722+6.0%536100-81%
DMCC-EZ1apartment2,7652,933+6.1%252-92%
Dubai Investment Park Secondmixed657699+6.4%6211-82%
Dubai Water Canalapartment3,1073,309+6.5%22021-90%
Business Bayapartment2,4752,654+7.2%2,926349-88%
TECOM Site Dapartment2,6132,807+7.4%101-90%
Dubai Studio Cityapartment1,4181,537+8.4%57092-84%
Majanapartment1,6801,831+9.0%2,229277-88%
Springs - 2villa1,7001,870+10.0%318-74%
Arabian Ranches IIvilla1,3811,541+11.6%303-90%
Jumeirah Parkvilla1,2731,466+15.2%4712-74%
Arabian Ranches 3villa1,7952,095+16.7%12423-81%
Al Bararimixed2,8233,299+16.9%545-91%
Dubai South Residential Districtmixed1,1531,369+18.7%682159-77%
Jabal Ali Villagemixed1,4531,764+21.4%165-69%
Nad Al Sheba Gardensmixed1,7882,422+35.5%828-90%
Jumeirah Golf Estatesmixed1,6542,274+37.5%14615-90%
Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11mixed1,8382,859+55.5%18125-86%
Site Aapartment9733,022+210.6%2945-98%

Like-for-like comparison of median AED/sqft and transaction volume. 2025Q4 = Oct–Dec 2025 (pre-conflict) · 2026Q1 = Jan–Mar 2026 (conflict period).

What to watch for in Q2 2026

Q2 transaction data registers with DLD on a 4–8 week lag. The first signal of how the conflict is shaping the Dubai property market this quarter will likely arrive in our weekly refresh cycle through May and June. Three patterns worth tracking:

  • 1

    Volume before price. Geopolitical events typically show up in transaction count first (sellers pause listings, buyers slow decisions) and in median PSF later (as the few deals that close skew toward distressed sales). If Q2 volumes are down 15%+ but PSF holds, the market is in “wait” mode rather than correction.

  • 2

    Off-plan vs ready divergence. Off-plan launches are more sensitive to sentiment shocks (cancel-able, multi-year commitment). Ready-property resale tends to be stickier. If off-plan slows sharply but ready holds, the market is pricing in conflict-uncertainty without underlying demand collapse.

  • 3

    Buyer-mix shifts. Past Dubai shocks (2008, 2014–16, COVID) saw nationality-mix changes — different cohorts step in as others step back. The Reddit pulse is a leading indicator: if “safety” mentions rise sharply in expat sub-communities, bookings + relocations from those nationalities follow within ~6 weeks.

Methodology & caveats

  • • Like-for-like comparison uses median AED/sqft to normalise for unit-size differences between quarters
  • • Q1 2026 data may still be backfilling — DLD registration lag is typically 4–8 weeks
  • • Price impacts from geopolitical events typically lag 1–2 quarters as contracts signed pre-conflict close
  • • Volume drops are often a leading indicator — sellers pause listings before prices adjust
  • • Off-plan sales may show different patterns than secondary-market transactions
  • • Reddit pulse is English-language expat-skewed — it captures expat-resident sentiment, not the wider Dubai population