Regional market
Dubai property since the Iran conflict began
Tracking changes in Dubai property prices and transaction volumes since the Iran conflict began. Comparing a fixed baseline of 2025Q4 (Oct–Dec 2025, pre-conflict) with 2026Q3 (Jul–Sep 2026, the latest completed provisional quarter).
Transaction data currently runs through 2 Nov 2026, refreshed from the official Dubai Land Department DDADS feed. The most recent weeks under-report because of DLD registration lag (typically 4–8 weeks), so trailing figures firm up over the following months. Source: Dubai Land Department official records.
Mean community PSF
+1.0%
Unweighted across tracked areas
Total transaction volume
-36.0%
52,907 → 33,844
Communities declining
17
of 35 tracked
Communities rising
17
of 35 tracked
Largest PSF declines
Oct–Dec 2025 → Jul–Sep 2026
Largest PSF increases
Oct–Dec 2025 → Jul–Sep 2026
By segment — apartment vs villa
Median changes within each property type. Ownership mix and transaction patterns differ between apartments and villas; this comparison does not isolate a conflict effect.
Apartment communities
21 trackedMedian PSF change
-2.2%
Median volume change
-47%
Villa communities
2 trackedMedian PSF change
+0.3%
Median volume change
-30%
Off-plan vs ready divergence
Off-plan sale transactions vs ready-property resales, by quarter. Different launch schedules, buyer mixes and registration patterns can move these series independently.
Off-plan
2026Q3 vs 2025Q4
-37%
23,848 txns this quarter
Ready
2026Q3 vs 2025Q4
-34%
10,004 txns this quarter
Cash vs mortgage trajectory
Share of sales matched against a coincident DLD mortgage registration. A higher unmatched share can coincide with fewer mortgage-linked purchases, but this method cannot identify buyer funding or motivation.
Cash share change (2025Q4 → 2026Q3)
-0.8pp
Cash now 67% of sales · financed 33%
Methodology: a sale is “financed” if a Mortgage transaction registered with DLD in the same building within ±2 calendar months. Approximation — foreign or private-bank financing doesn't register with DLD and counts as cash.
Daily transactions — last 90 calendar days
All Dubai residential transactions registered with DLD per calendar day. Missing dates are shown as zero; the trailing 30 calendar days fade because records may still be backfilling.
339
avg txns/day
Conflict began 28 Feb 2026. Solid line = earlier registrations; dashed = trailing 30 calendar days where DLD records may still be backfilling. Source: official DLD DDADS records, refreshed daily.
Historical discussion — how often does safety appear?
Browse all pulse data →Communities where the “safety” aspect appears most often in the dated 2021–2026 Reddit archive. Mention frequency does not establish concern or predict transaction activity.
- DIFC57 mentionsConcerned
- Downtown Dubai43 mentionsConcerned
- Al Barsha42 mentionsConcerned
- Dubai Marina39 mentionsConcerned
- Jumeirah33 mentionsConcerned
- Business Bay32 mentionsConcerned
From 5,720 AI-scored Reddit area mentions (r/dubai, r/UAE, r/expats), 2021–2026 — a historical snapshot of online discussion, not a live feed or representative survey. Mention counts are aspect-tagged; not all mentions are conflict-related, and UAE-wide safety is consistently rated highly. The live market-temperature score comes from DLD market signals.
Community-by-community changes
Full ranked table. Click any community for its full price history and dated discussion context.
| Community | 2025Q4 PSF | 2026Q3 PSF | Price Change | 2025Q4 Vol | 2026Q3 Vol | Vol Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DownTown Dubaiapartment | 3,685 | 2,587 | -29.8% | 1,709 | 715 | -58% |
| Al Rashidiyamixed | 407 | 291 | -28.5% | 17 | 12 | -29% |
| Business Bayapartment | 2,535 | 2,072 | -18.3% | 2,795 | 938 | -66% |
| Silicon Oasisapartment | 1,375 | 1,135 | -17.5% | 956 | 386 | -60% |
| Mirdifmixed | 1,136 | 997 | -12.2% | 94 | 56 | -40% |
| Jumeirah Village Circleapartment | 1,599 | 1,456 | -8.9% | 9,810 | 3,775 | -62% |
| Jumeirah Garden Cityapartment | 2,857 | 2,629 | -8.0% | 1,110 | 517 | -53% |
| Dubai Investment Park Secondmixed | 1,561 | 1,444 | -7.5% | 2,596 | 138 | -95% |
| HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7mixed | 2,424 | 2,257 | -6.9% | 984 | 510 | -48% |
| Palm Deiraapartment | 2,514 | 2,345 | -6.7% | 1,560 | 498 | -68% |
| The Greensapartment | 1,795 | 1,710 | -4.7% | 209 | 150 | -28% |
| Dubai Marinaapartment | 2,309 | 2,213 | -4.2% | 2,114 | 1,494 | -29% |
| Jumeirah Islandsapartment | 1,648 | 1,605 | -2.6% | 122 | 84 | -31% |
| Dubai Maritime Cityapartment | 3,145 | 3,072 | -2.3% | 1,916 | 279 | -85% |
| Jumeirah Village Triangleapartment | 1,627 | 1,591 | -2.2% | 2,200 | 1,310 | -40% |
| Jaddaf Waterfrontapartment | 2,045 | 2,012 | -1.6% | 1,171 | 585 | -50% |
| Meydan One Communityapartment | 2,126 | 2,110 | -0.8% | 1,345 | 1,073 | -20% |
| Arabian Ranches IIvilla | 1,356 | 1,356 | 0.0% | 96 | 64 | -33% |
| Mina Rashidapartment | 2,520 | 2,530 | +0.4% | 1,075 | 761 | -29% |
| Arabian Ranches - 1villa | 1,542 | 1,551 | +0.6% | 6,951 | 5,125 | -26% |
| Dubai Land Residence Complexapartment | 1,456 | 1,467 | +0.8% | 580 | 309 | -47% |
| Palm Jabal Alimixed | 3,500 | 3,565 | +1.9% | 86 | 197 | +129% |
| Palm Jumeirahapartment | 2,625 | 2,692 | +2.6% | 666 | 236 | -65% |
| DAMAC HILLSmixed | 1,561 | 1,604 | +2.8% | 4,640 | 3,002 | -35% |
| Dubai South Residential Districtmixed | 1,548 | 1,606 | +3.7% | 1,650 | 1,072 | -35% |
| Al Furjanmixed | 1,339 | 1,410 | +5.3% | 1,030 | 693 | -33% |
| Dubai Creek Harbourapartment | 2,427 | 2,560 | +5.5% | 792 | 369 | -53% |
| DAMAC HILLS 2mixed | 981 | 1,039 | +5.9% | 533 | 278 | -48% |
| Dubai Investment Park Firstmixed | 1,010 | 1,079 | +6.8% | 81 | 768 | +848% |
| Nad Al Sheba Gardensmixed | 981 | 1,083 | +10.4% | 26 | 22 | -15% |
| Dubai World Centralmixed | 1,471 | 1,699 | +15.5% | 2,915 | 5,636 | +93% |
| Barsha Heightsapartment | 880 | 1,022 | +16.1% | 90 | 57 | -37% |
| Down Town Jabal Aliapartment | 1,344 | 1,727 | +28.5% | 108 | 1,900 | +1659% |
| WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENTapartment | 789 | 1,100 | +39.4% | 856 | 781 | -9% |
| Dubai Harbourapartment | 1,632 | 2,455 | +50.4% | 24 | 54 | +125% |
Community-level comparison of median AED/sqft and transaction counts; property mix can differ between periods. 2025Q4 = Oct–Dec 2025 (pre-conflict) · 2026Q3 = Jul–Sep 2026 (latest completed quarter).
What to watch next
Transaction data registers with DLD on a 4–8 week lag, so the current quarter's picture firms up gradually as records arrive through the DDADS feed. Three patterns worth tracking as the data fills in:
- 1
Volume before price. Transaction counts can move before median PSF because fewer deals close while previously signed contracts continue to register. Lower 2026Q3 volume with stable PSF is consistent with slower activity, but does not establish why buyers or sellers paused.
- 2
Off-plan vs ready divergence. Off-plan sales and ready-property resales have different launch schedules, buyer mixes and registration patterns. A divergence is worth monitoring, but does not identify its cause.
- 3
Buyer-mix shifts. Dubai transaction patterns have changed during earlier periods of market stress, but this dataset does not identify buyer nationality or motivation. The dated discussion archive is contextual only: more safety mentions may reflect news attention or sampling changes, not bookings or relocations.
Methodology & caveats
- • Median AED/sqft reduces unit-size sensitivity but does not control for property mix, project launches or unit quality
- • The comparison uses the latest completed provisional quarter (Jul–Sep 2026); figures continue to firm up as DLD records register and roll forward automatically on each refresh
- • This is a before-and-after comparison, not a causal estimate; seasonality and broader market trends are not controlled for
- • Registered price movements can lag decisions because contracts signed earlier may close in later quarters
- • Transaction volume can change before median price, but the data alone cannot explain buyer or seller motivation
- • Off-plan sales and secondary-market transactions have different timing and composition
- • The dated discussion archive is English-language and expat-skewed — it is not representative of Dubai's wider population