Risk metric
Dubai community fragility rankings
The counterweight to investability. Fragility scores how vulnerable each community is to a market downturn — composite of leverage trend, transaction liquidity, asking-vs-realized wedge, DLD market temperature, and off-plan supply share. Higher = more fragile. Not a sell signal — a community can be both attractive and fragile. Use it to understand the downside, not to time the market.
Communities
91
Elevated risk
15
Moderate
51
Robust
25
Highest fragility with robust coverage
Only communities with at least 4 of 5 inputs are ranked numerically. Higher bar = more vulnerable.
#1Dubai Investment Park Second
67/100 · 4/5 inputs
Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them)#2Palm Jumeirah
66/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#3Business Bay
53/100 · 5/5 inputs
Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure)#4Dubai Investment Park First
41/100 · 5/5 inputs
| Community | Fragility | Tier | Top driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Dubai Investment Park Second | 67/1004/5 inputs | Moderate | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #2Palm Jumeirah | 66/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #3Business Bay | 53/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure) | |
| #4Dubai Investment Park First | 41/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #5TECOM Site D | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #6The Villa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #7Al Barari | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #8Bluewaters Island | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #9Dubai Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #10Jabal Ali Village | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #11Remraam | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #12Al Rashidiya | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #13Jumeirah Golf Estates | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #14Rukan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #15TECOM Site A | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #16Business Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #17Springs - 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #18Falcon City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #19Mina Rashid | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #20Dubai Land Residence Complex | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #21Jumeirah Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #22WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #23HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #24LA MER | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #25Nad Al Shiba Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #26Wasl 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #27JABEL ALI HILLS | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #28The World | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #29DMCC-EZ1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #30Nad Al Sheba Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #31Springs - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #32Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #33Palm Jabal Ali | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #34Sufouh Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #35Al Warqa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #36Dubai Water Canal | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #37Silicon Oasis | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #38Arabian Ranches II | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #39Madinat Badr | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #40Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #41800 Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #42TILAL AL GHAF | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #43City Walk | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #44DownTown Dubai | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #45The Valley | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #46Arabian Ranches 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #47Mudon | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #48The Greens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #49Jumeirah Village Triangle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #50DMCC-EZ2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #51Jumeirah Lakes Towers | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #52Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #53Barsha Heights | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #54Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #55Academic City | Tier only0/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #56Mirdif | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #57Dubai Maritime City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #58Liwan1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #59Down Town Jabal Ali | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #60Al Furjan | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #61Palm Deira | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #62International City Phase 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #63Discovery Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #64SOBHA HARTLAND | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #65Dubai South Residential District | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #66Living Legends | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #67Dubai Hills Estate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #68Dubai Science Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #69Jumeirah Islands | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #70Jumeirah Village Circle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #71Meydan Racecourse Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #72Motor City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #73Dubai Sports City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #74DAMAC HILLS 2 | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #75DAMAC Lagoons | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #76Jaddaf Waterfront | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #77Meydan One Community | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #78TOWN SQUARE | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #79Dubai Studio City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #80International City Phase 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #81City Of Arabia | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #82DAMAC HILLS | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #83Majan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #84Arabian Ranches - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #85Wasl Gate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #86Dubai Creek Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #87Arjan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #88International Media Production Zone | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #89Jumeirah Garden City | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #90Dubai Marina | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #91Dubai World Central | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — |
Methodology
Five drivers, each percentile-ranked across all Dubai communities (higher percentile = more fragile), then weighted: leverage trend (30%), transaction liquidity (25%), asking-vs-realized wedge (20%), market temperature (15%), off-plan supply share (10%). Tiers: robust (<40), moderate (40–70), elevated (70+). Exact scores and numerical rankings are published only when at least 4 of 5 inputs are available; lower coverage is tier-only.
Leverage
Liquidity
Asking wedge
Market temp.
Off-plan
Last refresh: recent · Fragility is context, not a trade signal. Pair with the investability rankings to find communities that are both attractive and robust.