Risk metric
Dubai community fragility rankings
The counterweight to investability. Fragility scores how vulnerable each community is to a market downturn — composite of leverage trend, transaction liquidity, asking-vs-realized wedge, DLD market temperature, and off-plan supply share. Higher = more fragile. Not a sell signal — a community can be both attractive and fragile. Use it to understand the downside, not to time the market.
Communities
91
Elevated risk
22
Moderate
42
Robust
27
Highest fragility with robust coverage
Only communities with at least 4 of 5 inputs are ranked numerically. Higher bar = more vulnerable.
#1Dubai Investment Park Second
71/100 · 4/5 inputs
Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them)#2Palm Jumeirah
54/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#3Business Bay
48/100 · 5/5 inputs
Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure)#4Dubai Investment Park First
43/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#5Mirdif
43/100 · 4/5 inputs
Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery)#6Palm Deira
30/100 · 4/5 inputs
DLD market temperature trending negative| Community | Fragility | Tier | Top driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Dubai Investment Park Second | 71/1004/5 inputs | Elevated | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #2Palm Jumeirah | 54/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #3Business Bay | 48/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure) | |
| #4Dubai Investment Park First | 43/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #5Mirdif | 43/1004/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #6Palm Deira | 30/1004/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #7TECOM Site D | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #8LA MER | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #9Springs - 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #10Bluewaters Island | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #11Springs - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #12Remraam | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #13Barsha Heights | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #14Jumeirah Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #15Al Barari | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #16Dubai Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #17Sufouh Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #18Jumeirah Golf Estates | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #19Falcon City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #20Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #21Rukan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #22800 Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #23Madinat Badr | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #24Al Rashidiya | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #25The World | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #26HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #27Business Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #28Dubai Land Residence Complex | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #29TECOM Site A | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #30WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #31Nad Al Sheba Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #32Nad Al Shiba Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #33DMCC-EZ1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #34Palm Jabal Ali | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #35JABEL ALI HILLS | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #36Silicon Oasis | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #37City Walk | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #38Dubai Water Canal | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #39The Villa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #40TILAL AL GHAF | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #41Dubai Studio City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #42Jabal Ali Village | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #43Al Warqa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #44Wasl Gate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #45Living Legends | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #46DAMAC HILLS | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #47Arabian Ranches 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #48Jumeirah Village Triangle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #49Jumeirah Islands | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #50Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #51Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #52Academic City | Tier only0/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #53Arabian Ranches II | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #54Wasl 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #55Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #56Mudon | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #57International City Phase 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #58Al Furjan | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #59Dubai Maritime City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #60The Greens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #61TOWN SQUARE | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #62Discovery Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #63The Valley | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #64Liwan1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #65Meydan Racecourse Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #66City Of Arabia | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #67DownTown Dubai | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #68International Media Production Zone | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #69Dubai Hills Estate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #70SOBHA HARTLAND | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #71Meydan One Community | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #72Dubai Science Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #73Mina Rashid | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #74Down Town Jabal Ali | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #75Dubai Marina | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #76Dubai South Residential District | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #77Jaddaf Waterfront | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #78Majan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #79Jumeirah Lakes Towers | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #80DAMAC HILLS 2 | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #81International City Phase 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #82Motor City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #83Jumeirah Garden City | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #84DMCC-EZ2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #85Dubai Sports City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #86Jumeirah Village Circle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #87Dubai Creek Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #88Arjan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #89Arabian Ranches - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #90Dubai World Central | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #91DAMAC Lagoons | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — |
Methodology
Five drivers, each percentile-ranked across all Dubai communities (higher percentile = more fragile), then weighted: leverage trend (30%), transaction liquidity (25%), asking-vs-realized wedge (20%), market temperature (15%), off-plan supply share (10%). Tiers: robust (<40), moderate (40–70), elevated (70+). Exact scores and numerical rankings are published only when at least 4 of 5 inputs are available; lower coverage is tier-only.
Leverage
Liquidity
Asking wedge
Market temp.
Off-plan
Last refresh: recent · Fragility is context, not a trade signal. Pair with the investability rankings to find communities that are both attractive and robust.