Risk metric
Dubai community fragility rankings
The counterweight to investability. Fragility scores how vulnerable each community is to a market downturn — composite of leverage trend, transaction liquidity, asking-vs-realized wedge, market sentiment, and off-plan supply share. Higher = more fragile. Not a sell signal — a community can be both attractive and fragile. Use it to understand the downside, not to time the market.
Communities
91
Elevated risk
18
Moderate
50
Robust
23
Top 10 most fragile communities
Higher bar = more vulnerable. Click through for the full driver breakdown.
#1The World
94
Market-behavior sentiment trending negative#2Al Barari
87
Market-behavior sentiment trending negative#3Springs - 1
87
Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery)#4TECOM Site D
81
Market-behavior sentiment trending negative#5Arabian Ranches II
79
Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery)#6LA MER
78
Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery)#7Falcon City
78
Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery)#8DMCC-EZ1
78
Market-behavior sentiment trending negative#9HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7
77
Market-behavior sentiment trending negative#10Rukan
75
Market-behavior sentiment trending negative| Community | Fragility | Tier | Top driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1The World | 94 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #2Al Barari | 87 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #3Springs - 1 | 87 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #4TECOM Site D | 81 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #5Arabian Ranches II | 79 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #6LA MER | 78 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #7Falcon City | 78 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #8DMCC-EZ1 | 78 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #9HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7 | 77 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #10Rukan | 75 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #11800 Villas | 75 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #12Barsha Heights | 74 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #13TECOM Site A | 73 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #14Sufouh Gardens | 73 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #15Bluewaters Island | 72 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #16Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR | 71 | Elevated | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #17The Villa | 71 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #18JABEL ALI HILLS | 70 | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #19Al Warqa | 69 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #20Wasl 1 | 67 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #21Living Legends | 67 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #22Madinat Badr | 67 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #23Nad Al Shiba Villas | 65 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #24Springs - 2 | 64 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #25Jaddaf Waterfront | 63 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #26WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT | 63 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #27TILAL AL GHAF | 62 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #28Mirdif | 62 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #29Dubai Water Canal | 61 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #30DMCC-EZ2 | 61 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #31Business Park | 61 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #32Jabal Ali Village | 60 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #33City Walk | 59 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #34Business Bay | 58 | Moderate | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #35Palm Jumeirah | 58 | Moderate | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #36Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community | 58 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #37City Of Arabia | 58 | Moderate | — | |
| #38Mina Rashid | 57 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #39Down Town Jabal Ali | 57 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #40Dubai Harbour | 56 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #41Nad Al Sheba Gardens | 56 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #42Jumeirah Golf Estates | 55 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #43Dubai Investment Park Second | 55 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #44DAMAC Lagoons | 54 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #45Dubai Investment Park First | 52 | Moderate | — | |
| #46Palm Jabal Ali | 52 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #47Jumeirah Park | 52 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #48Al Rashidiya | 52 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #49DAMAC HILLS | 50 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #50The Valley | 50 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #51Arabian Ranches - 1 | 50 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #52Academic City | 50 | Moderate | — | |
| #53Remraam | 49 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #54Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 | 48 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #55Meydan Racecourse Community | 45 | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #56The Greens | 44 | Moderate | — | |
| #57Dubai Science Park | 43 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #58Jumeirah Islands | 43 | Moderate | — | |
| #59International City Phase 3 | 43 | Moderate | — | |
| #60Wasl Gate | 43 | Moderate | — | |
| #61Mudon | 42 | Moderate | — | |
| #62Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11 | 42 | Moderate | — | |
| #63Dubai Sports City | 41 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #64Meydan One Community | 40 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #65Silicon Oasis | 40 | Moderate | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #66Arabian Ranches 3 | 40 | Moderate | — | |
| #67Discovery Gardens | 40 | Moderate | — | |
| #68Liwan1 | 40 | Moderate | — | |
| #69Jumeirah Lakes Towers | 39 | Robust | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #70Jumeirah Garden City | 38 | Robust | — | |
| #71Dubai Marina | 37 | Robust | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #72Motor City | 37 | Robust | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #73DownTown Dubai | 36 | Robust | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #74TOWN SQUARE | 36 | Robust | — | |
| #75Jumeirah Village Triangle | 35 | Robust | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #76Majan | 34 | Robust | — | |
| #77Al Furjan | 32 | Robust | — | |
| #78SOBHA HARTLAND | 30 | Robust | — | |
| #79Jumeirah Village Circle | 29 | Robust | Market-behavior sentiment trending negative | |
| #80Dubai Maritime City | 28 | Robust | — | |
| #81Dubai Studio City | 27 | Robust | — | |
| #82International Media Production Zone | 26 | Robust | — | |
| #83Palm Deira | 26 | Robust | Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure) | |
| #84DAMAC HILLS 2 | 24 | Robust | — | |
| #85International City Phase 1 | 22 | Robust | — | |
| #86Arjan | 20 | Robust | — | |
| #87Dubai South Residential District | 19 | Robust | — | |
| #88Dubai Hills Estate | 12 | Robust | — | |
| #89Dubai Land Residence Complex | 11 | Robust | — | |
| #90Dubai Creek Harbour | 9 | Robust | — | |
| #91Dubai World Central | 9 | Robust | — |
Methodology
Five drivers, each percentile-ranked across all Dubai communities (higher percentile = more fragile), then weighted: leverage trend (30%), transaction liquidity (25%), asking-vs-realized wedge (20%), sentiment (15%), off-plan supply share (10%). Tiers: robust (<40), moderate (40–70), elevated (70+).
Leverage
Liquidity
Asking wedge
Sentiment
Off-plan
Last refresh: recent · Fragility is context, not a trade signal. Pair with the investability rankings to find communities that are both attractive and robust.