Risk metric
Dubai community fragility rankings
The counterweight to investability. Fragility scores how vulnerable each community is to a market downturn — composite of leverage trend, transaction liquidity, asking-vs-realized wedge, DLD market temperature, and off-plan supply share. Higher = more fragile. Not a sell signal — a community can be both attractive and fragile. Use it to understand the downside, not to time the market.
Communities
91
Elevated risk
22
Moderate
42
Robust
27
Highest fragility with robust coverage
Only communities with at least 4 of 5 inputs are ranked numerically. Higher bar = more vulnerable.
#1Dubai Investment Park Second
71/100 · 4/5 inputs
Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them)#2Palm Jumeirah
56/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#3Business Bay
47/100 · 5/5 inputs
Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure)#4Dubai Investment Park First
40/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#5Palm Deira
30/100 · 4/5 inputs
DLD market temperature trending negative| Community | Fragility | Tier | Top driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Dubai Investment Park Second | 71/1004/5 inputs | Elevated | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #2Palm Jumeirah | 56/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #3Business Bay | 47/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure) | |
| #4Dubai Investment Park First | 40/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #5Palm Deira | 30/1004/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #6TECOM Site D | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #7LA MER | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #8Springs - 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #9Bluewaters Island | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #10Remraam | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #11Jumeirah Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #12Springs - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #13Al Rashidiya | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #14Barsha Heights | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #15Al Barari | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #16Dubai Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #17Sufouh Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #18Rukan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #19Madinat Badr | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #20Falcon City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #21Jumeirah Golf Estates | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #22The World | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #23Business Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #24HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #25Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #26Nad Al Shiba Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #27800 Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #28Nad Al Sheba Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #29DMCC-EZ1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #30Dubai Land Residence Complex | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #31Silicon Oasis | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #32JABEL ALI HILLS | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #33Palm Jabal Ali | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #34Dubai Water Canal | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #35WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #36City Walk | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #37Dubai Studio City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #38The Villa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #39TILAL AL GHAF | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #40Jabal Ali Village | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #41TECOM Site A | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #42Al Warqa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #43DAMAC HILLS | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #44Wasl Gate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #45Living Legends | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #46Mirdif | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #47Jumeirah Islands | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #48Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #49Academic City | Tier only0/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #50Arabian Ranches 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #51Arabian Ranches II | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #52Jumeirah Village Triangle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #53Wasl 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #54Al Furjan | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #55Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #56TOWN SQUARE | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #57Dubai Maritime City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #58Mudon | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #59Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #60Discovery Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #61The Greens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #62International City Phase 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #63Meydan Racecourse Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #64DownTown Dubai | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #65The Valley | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #66City Of Arabia | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #67Dubai Hills Estate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #68International Media Production Zone | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #69Liwan1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #70Dubai Science Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #71Down Town Jabal Ali | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #72SOBHA HARTLAND | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #73Meydan One Community | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #74Dubai South Residential District | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #75Mina Rashid | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #76Jaddaf Waterfront | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #77Majan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #78Dubai Creek Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #79Jumeirah Lakes Towers | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #80DAMAC HILLS 2 | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #81Dubai Sports City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #82International City Phase 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #83Motor City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #84Jumeirah Garden City | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #85DMCC-EZ2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #86Dubai Marina | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #87Jumeirah Village Circle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #88Arjan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #89Arabian Ranches - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #90Dubai World Central | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #91DAMAC Lagoons | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — |
Methodology
Five drivers, each percentile-ranked across all Dubai communities (higher percentile = more fragile), then weighted: leverage trend (30%), transaction liquidity (25%), asking-vs-realized wedge (20%), market temperature (15%), off-plan supply share (10%). Tiers: robust (<40), moderate (40–70), elevated (70+). Exact scores and numerical rankings are published only when at least 4 of 5 inputs are available; lower coverage is tier-only.
Leverage
Liquidity
Asking wedge
Market temp.
Off-plan
Last refresh: recent · Fragility is context, not a trade signal. Pair with the investability rankings to find communities that are both attractive and robust.