Risk metric
Dubai community fragility rankings
The counterweight to investability. Fragility scores how vulnerable each community is to a market downturn — composite of leverage trend, transaction liquidity, asking-vs-realized wedge, DLD market temperature, and off-plan supply share. Higher = more fragile. Not a sell signal — a community can be both attractive and fragile. Use it to understand the downside, not to time the market.
Communities
91
Elevated risk
18
Moderate
47
Robust
26
Highest fragility with robust coverage
Only communities with at least 4 of 5 inputs are ranked numerically. Higher bar = more vulnerable.
#1Dubai Investment Park Second
68/100 · 4/5 inputs
Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them)#2Palm Jumeirah
64/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#3Business Bay
51/100 · 5/5 inputs
Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure)#4Dubai Investment Park First
50/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)| Community | Fragility | Tier | Top driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Dubai Investment Park Second | 68/1004/5 inputs | Moderate | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #2Palm Jumeirah | 64/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #3Business Bay | 51/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure) | |
| #4Dubai Investment Park First | 50/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #5TECOM Site D | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #6Jumeirah Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #7Al Barari | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #8Jumeirah Golf Estates | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #9Nad Al Shiba Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #10Jabal Ali Village | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #11Springs - 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #12Dubai Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #13Rukan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #14Bluewaters Island | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #15LA MER | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #16Wasl 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #17Remraam | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #18Business Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #19The Villa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #20800 Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #21Falcon City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #22Al Rashidiya | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #23JABEL ALI HILLS | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #24Al Warqa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #25TECOM Site A | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #26Nad Al Sheba Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #27The World | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #28Dubai Land Residence Complex | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #29WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #30Springs - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #31Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #32DMCC-EZ1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #33Madinat Badr | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #34Silicon Oasis | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #35TILAL AL GHAF | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #36Dubai Water Canal | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #37Sufouh Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #38City Walk | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #39Palm Jabal Ali | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #40DMCC-EZ2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #41Mina Rashid | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #42Liwan1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #43The Valley | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #44HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #45Arabian Ranches II | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #46Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #47Jumeirah Lakes Towers | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #48Jumeirah Village Triangle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #49Barsha Heights | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #50Mirdif | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #51Academic City | Tier only0/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #52Dubai Maritime City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #53Arabian Ranches 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #54DownTown Dubai | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #55Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #56The Greens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #57Palm Deira | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #58Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #59DAMAC HILLS 2 | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #60Jumeirah Islands | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #61Mudon | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #62Living Legends | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #63Dubai Science Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #64Discovery Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #65Meydan Racecourse Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #66Down Town Jabal Ali | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #67SOBHA HARTLAND | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #68Dubai Sports City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #69DAMAC HILLS | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #70Dubai Hills Estate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #71Meydan One Community | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #72International City Phase 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #73Al Furjan | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #74TOWN SQUARE | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #75International City Phase 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #76Dubai Studio City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #77Dubai South Residential District | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #78Jumeirah Village Circle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #79Motor City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #80DAMAC Lagoons | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #81Jaddaf Waterfront | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #82City Of Arabia | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #83Jumeirah Garden City | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #84Arjan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #85Wasl Gate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #86International Media Production Zone | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #87Majan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #88Arabian Ranches - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #89Dubai Creek Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #90Dubai Marina | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #91Dubai World Central | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — |
Methodology
Five drivers, each percentile-ranked across all Dubai communities (higher percentile = more fragile), then weighted: leverage trend (30%), transaction liquidity (25%), asking-vs-realized wedge (20%), market temperature (15%), off-plan supply share (10%). Tiers: robust (<40), moderate (40–70), elevated (70+). Exact scores and numerical rankings are published only when at least 4 of 5 inputs are available; lower coverage is tier-only.
Leverage
Liquidity
Asking wedge
Market temp.
Off-plan
Last refresh: recent · Fragility is context, not a trade signal. Pair with the investability rankings to find communities that are both attractive and robust.