Risk metric
Dubai community fragility rankings
The counterweight to investability. Fragility scores how vulnerable each community is to a market downturn — composite of leverage trend, transaction liquidity, asking-vs-realized wedge, DLD market temperature, and off-plan supply share. Higher = more fragile. Not a sell signal — a community can be both attractive and fragile. Use it to understand the downside, not to time the market.
Communities
91
Elevated risk
18
Moderate
45
Robust
28
Highest fragility with robust coverage
Only communities with at least 4 of 5 inputs are ranked numerically. Higher bar = more vulnerable.
#1Dubai Investment Park Second
68/100 · 4/5 inputs
Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them)#2Palm Jumeirah
65/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)#3Business Bay
53/100 · 5/5 inputs
Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure)#4Dubai Investment Park First
46/100 · 5/5 inputs
Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap)| Community | Fragility | Tier | Top driver | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1Dubai Investment Park Second | 68/1004/5 inputs | Moderate | Buyer stock highly leveraged (rising rates squeeze them) | |
| #2Palm Jumeirah | 65/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #3Business Bay | 53/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Heavy off-plan pipeline (handover-wave price pressure) | |
| #4Dubai Investment Park First | 46/1005/5 inputs | Moderate | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #5TECOM Site D | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #6Jumeirah Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #7Al Barari | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #8Nad Al Shiba Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #9Jumeirah Golf Estates | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #10Jabal Ali Village | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #11Springs - 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #12Bluewaters Island | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #13Nad Al Sheba Gardens | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #14Dubai Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Elevated | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #15Rukan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #16Business Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #17LA MER | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #18Wasl 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #19Springs - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #20Al Rashidiya | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #21TECOM Site A | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #22The Villa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Elevated | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #23JABEL ALI HILLS | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #24WARSAN FIRST DEVELOPMENT | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #25800 Villas | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #26Remraam | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #27The World | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #28Falcon City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #29Madinat Badr | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #30Al Warqa | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #31Dubai Health Care City Phase 2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #32DMCC-EZ1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #33Dubai Land Residence Complex | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #34TILAL AL GHAF | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #35HADAEQ SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN RASHID - DISRICT 7 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #36Palm Jabal Ali | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #37Sufouh Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #38Silicon Oasis | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #39Liwan1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #40Arabian Ranches II | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #41City Walk | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #42Mina Rashid | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #43DMCC-EZ2 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #44The Valley | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #45Dubai Water Canal | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #46Mirdif | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #47Jumeirah Village Triangle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #48Jumeirah Lakes Towers | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #49Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum City -District -1 Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #50Barsha Heights | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #51Academic City | Tier only0/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #52DownTown Dubai | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #53Jumeirah Islands | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #54Dubai Maritime City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #55Arabian Ranches 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #56The Greens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #57Mohammed Bin Rashid AL Maktoum District 11 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | — | |
| #58Jumeriah Beach Residence - JBR | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #59Palm Deira | Tier only3/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #60Meydan Racecourse Community | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #61Dubai Science Park | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #62Living Legends | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #63Mudon | Tier only2/5 inputs | Moderate | Thin transaction volume (slow price discovery) | |
| #64Al Furjan | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #65Discovery Gardens | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #66Dubai Sports City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #67Down Town Jabal Ali | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #68TOWN SQUARE | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #69Dubai Studio City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #70Dubai Hills Estate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #71DAMAC HILLS 2 | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #72Meydan One Community | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #73SOBHA HARTLAND | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #74International City Phase 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #75International City Phase 3 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #76DAMAC HILLS | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | Sellers asking far above realized prices (denial gap) | |
| #77DAMAC Lagoons | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #78Dubai South Residential District | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | DLD market temperature trending negative | |
| #79Jumeirah Village Circle | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #80Jaddaf Waterfront | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #81City Of Arabia | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #82Arjan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #83Motor City | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #84Wasl Gate | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #85Jumeirah Garden City | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #86Arabian Ranches - 1 | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #87International Media Production Zone | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #88Dubai Marina | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #89Dubai Creek Harbour | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #90Dubai World Central | Tier only3/5 inputs | Robust | — | |
| #91Majan | Tier only2/5 inputs | Robust | — |
Methodology
Five drivers, each percentile-ranked across all Dubai communities (higher percentile = more fragile), then weighted: leverage trend (30%), transaction liquidity (25%), asking-vs-realized wedge (20%), market temperature (15%), off-plan supply share (10%). Tiers: robust (<40), moderate (40–70), elevated (70+). Exact scores and numerical rankings are published only when at least 4 of 5 inputs are available; lower coverage is tier-only.
Leverage
Liquidity
Asking wedge
Market temp.
Off-plan
Last refresh: recent · Fragility is context, not a trade signal. Pair with the investability rankings to find communities that are both attractive and robust.